A GAME OF SKILL

As far as gambling and wagering are concerned we have games of skill and games of chance and racing could be classified as a game of skill enhanced by chance.

There are four distinct elements that play a role in how successful a player could be in the game of horse racing and each of these will be elaborated on below:

-          A: The ability to analyse and interpret form

-          B: Privileged information

-          C: Financial means

-          D: Lady luck

A: THE ABILITY TO ANALYSE AND INTERPRET FORM

This refers to the ability of an individual to make sense of the past performance data of a horse in determining the possible outcome of a future race when these performances are measured collaterally and/or independently. This is a skill which can and must be mastered to become a successful player, and can be learned over time. Further to this and something that can also be acquired over time is the ability to assess a horse by physical attributes and appearance such as the condition of the coat, how relaxed the animal is before a race, the rhythm and freedom of movement when going down to post and the degree of perspiration relative to prevailing weather conditions. Another area of learning which is important is pedigree as it relates to potential distance and track surface suitability.

B: PRIVILEGED INFORMATION

This has to do with stable information which some people are privileged to and that can be instrumental in assessing a horse’s chance in a race. The main components here are the current well-being of the animal, the work shown at home against other proven stable mates and actual race expectations which could be just a prep run or the actual target in terms of the horse’s career map. The betting will give those not privy to the information guidance in some instances but this remains an area of contention with constant requests for greater transparency.

C: FINANCIAL MEANS

What this refers to is the possible advantage that more affluent players have over smaller players based on greater spending power. Because bets can be structured and multiple runners can be selected a bigger permutation will mostly be an advantage as it will cover more outcomes or provide a bigger return if played multiple times or as a bigger percentage in the case of a fractional wager. Simply put, if two players of equal ability take part in a wager, it will mostly be a distinct advantage to have more selections than your compatriot player.

D: LADY LUCK

As with any game it would be naïve to suggest that luck never plays a part in the outcome of an event or a wager. At times we are the beneficiaries of good fortune and sometimes the victims of bad luck. This is an integral part of wagering and is always waiting in the wings to have an impact when we least expect it. Luck in running is also a major factor in the outcome of nearly every race run, so the importance of luck should not be discarded.

There is no doubt that the more skilled player will do better than the unskilled or lesser skilled player over time, with greater consistency in selections providing more frequent success. It is theoretically possible to win on luck alone but would never provide any consistency in the long run. The more any of the above elements form part of a player’s armoury, the more successful they should be.

In the current wagering environment the only element that all players have control over is A as anyone can acquire the skills needed to be a better than average punter. Current games makes C a disproportional advantage and B will probably always be available to only a select few. D compensates for a lack of everything else but is an unreliable ally at best and mostly only an occasional friend.

For racing to be a genuine game of skill and a more prestigious challenge we need to take the disparities of unequal spending power out of the equation and make it a true test of ability alone. To reach out successfully to a new customer base it would be beneficial to have a social offering that can ably demonstrate the value of skill to new players and actively promote their skills development.

Providing much needed fun and fairness in a racing involvement is mostly underestimated in importance, and would require games where it is not players against the system as in current games, but purely player against player in a competitive test of skill. This will make participation far more meaningful and enjoyable and provide a new social breeding ground for scores of skilled players that could ultimately be converted into long term customers.

Racing offered as an ultimate test of skill could help define racing as a sport and really support the industry where it matters most, active participation.

Racing Past Sell-By Date?

Ever wondered why racing is unable to grow its customer base and looking quite content despite a declining trend?

Some might call it apathy, others greed or asset plundering and even incompetence or perhaps being stuck in a glory days scenario and unable to change. The reality is that very few in the industry believes in the sports ability to turn its fortunes around, which partially explains the limited budgets allocated and efforts to expand racing relative to the overwhelming preservation thereof.

Can we really blame betting operators for searching for greener pastures when so much is spent on racing for such a measly return? The old saying about not throwing good money after bad comes to mind even though most of us will vigorously defend the preservation of racing. If this was our own business I have no doubt that we would have done the same, so attacking operators is hypocritical at best.

Does this mean that racing has no future and that we should start saying our goodbyes to the sport we have loved for so long? I hope that it will never come to that but we have to be prepared for a reduced offering in terms of service levels and the number of services available to us. Something has to give, and it will no doubt be felt across the loyal but ageing following that has supported racing for so many years.

Some suggest that racing is past its sell by date and that it will never experience the support that it once did up to the early eighties. Looking at our own and global annual big race days reveals a remarkable turnout for a sport that is supposed to be faced with “rigor mortis” in the near future. This is a key pointer towards a future that could be as the numbers suggest a sport that is very much alive, albeit not well, but that shows vibrance and resilience, certainly enough to still be capable of attracting a valuable and meaningful cross section of society to these occasions.

So what can betting operators do to turn attendance into active and continued participation which will help to make racing profitable again and restore it to a valuable and indispensable contributor to annual results?

This has been the most enigmatic challenge facing racing for a few decades now and one that is fast fading as a quest given the many years of failed attempts to do so. Given the lack of success in this area actually presents a very profitable opportunity as a solution will offer very sustainable growth off a very low base with great future yield possibilities.

Speculating on this would not be appropriate without offering a potential solution and a number of years of research suggest that it is in the area of product development where we will find the elusive answer.

What would a new product need to do to serve as an effective acquisition tool that will aid and inspire marketers to promote the game and more importantly help to restore an operator’s belief in actively promoting the racing side of the business?

There are two things that stand out as product design features needed to drive new interest in racing.

Firstly racing has to be able to offer life changing prize money on a regular basis, with jackpots that can come close to or rival casino or lottery pools and pay outs, for which we need a continuously growing format to facilitate a constant new interest. These pools needs to be advertised and regularly updated in the media and on digital platforms to grow the hype and to give racing long overdue new exposure. The “Racing, it’s a Rush” face book page could be a perfect platform for regular updates to build on the social outreach program and to offer a tangible reason to consider involvement over and beyond lifestyle appeal.

The second needed feature is definitely the most important aspect to consider in product design and this is the ability to keep new players involved in game play for an extended period of time and to reward regular participation. We need to overcome racing’s greatest drawback, the long learning curve associated with becoming a successful player. It is only when we can turn occasional and casual players into learning curve graduates that we will be able to move forward into profitable territory for racing. Turnover, racing’s understandable but misguided current priority happens to be a natural by-product of customer growth and as such the latter should be the most important objective to pursue.

Once customer numbers starts rising on a sustainable basis, many of the current difficulties demanding constant attention and monetary challenges, will fade into nothing. A large and growing customer base would open doors to media coverage, new and bigger sponsorships and word of mouth, not to mention social significance and turnover gains.

Betting operators should act now and lead in the racing future that could be rather than condemning it to obscurity by not actively seeking a racing solution.